Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Posts tagged Non-Farm Payrolls
Friday’s Jobs Report Represents A Big Risk To Low Mortgage Rates
068 days
by Geoff Brown
in The Economy
Have you been floating a mortgage rate? It may be time to lock.
At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its November Non-Farm Payrolls report. Better known as “the jobs report”, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figures provide sector-by-sector employment data, and tally the size of the current U.S. workforce size.
From these two elements, the national Unemployment Rate is derived.
Since topping out at 10.2% in October 2009, the Unemployment Rate has dropped to 9.0%. More than 2.3 million net new jobs have been made in the last 24 months.
Wall Street expect to see 125,000 more jobs added in November.
Depending on how closely the actual Non-Farm Payrolls data meets Wall Street expectations, Charlotte rate shoppers could find that the mortgage market landscape has shifted beneath them. The jobs report is a mortgage-market catalyst and when its reported value differs from Wall Street expectations, the impact on mortgage rates can be palpable — especially in a recovering economy.
The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is straight-forward — as the jobs market goes, so goes the economy.
- When more people work, consumer spending increases
- When consumer spending rises, businesses expand and invest
- When businesses expand and invest, more people are put to work
Furthermore, employees and employers both pay taxes to governments. With more tax revenue, governments embark upon new projects which (1) require the hiring of additional workers, and (2) require the purchase and/or repair of additional equipment and supplies.
Employment can be a self-reinforcing cycle for the economy and that’s why Friday’s jobs report will be so closely watched. If the number of jobs created exceeds the 125,000 expected, mortgage rates will rise on the expectation for a stronger U.S. economy in 2012.
Conversely, if the jobs figures fall short, mortgage rates may fall.
Mortgage rates continue to hover near all-time lows according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
If you’re under contract for a home or looking to refinance, minimize your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
More Risk To Home Affordability : Friday’s Jobs Report
097 days
by Geoff Brown
in The Economy
Within the next 48 hours, mortgage rates may get bouncy. The Federal Open Market Committee will adjourn from a 2-day meeting and October’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is due for release.
Of the two market movers, it’s the Non-Farm Payrolls report that may cause the most damage. Rate shoppers across Carolinas would do well to pay attention.
Published monthly, the “jobs report” provides sector-by-sector employment data from the month prior. It’s a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes the national Unemployment Rate.
In September, the economy added 103,000 jobs, and job creation from the two months prior was shown to be higher by 99,000 jobs higher than originally reported. This was a huge improvement over the initial August release which showed zero new jobs created.
When September’s jobs report was released, mortgage rates spiked. This is because of the correlation between jobs and the U.S. economy. There are a lot of economic “positives” when the U.S. workforce is growing.
- Consumer spending increases
- Governments start more projects
- Businesses make more investment
Each of these items leads to additional hiring, and the cycle continues.
Wall Street expects that 90,000 jobs were created in October 2011. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds this estimate, it will be considered a positive for the economy, and mortgage rates should climb as Wall Street dumps mortgage-backed bonds in favor of equities.
Conversely, if the number of new jobs falls short of 90,000, it will be considered a disappointment, and mortgage rates should rise.
There is a lot of risk in floating a mortgage rate today. The Federal Reserve could make a statement that drives rates higher, and Friday’s job report could do the same. If you’re under contract for a home or planning to refinance, eliminate your interest rate risk.
Lock your mortgage rate today.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 11, 2011
0118 days
by Geoff Brown
in Mortgage Rates
Mortgage markets worsened last week as safe haven buying eased and demand for mortgage-backed bonds dropped. As in most weeks since March 2011, Greece and U.S. jobs dictated market direction.
Conforming mortgage rates in Carolinas rose last week, lifting rates off their all-time lows and causing consternation among the nation’s would-be buyers and refinancers.
Last week’s action may surprise you. After all, Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey said average, 30-year fixed rate mortgages had dipped, dropping to 3.94% — the first time the average rate reported sub-4 percent.
A keen eye, however, revealed the another truth.
Yes, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage did go sub-4 percent, but, in order to get those rates, applicants were suddenly required to pay 0.8 “discount points”. This is an increase of 0.1 discount points from the week prior, a change in loan cost thatr reduces the benefit of falling mortgage rates.
1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
All of that is history now, however,. Rates climbed each day last week and are now at their pre-Labor Day levels. The Refi Boom may not be over, but it may be stalled.
This week, mortgage rates may continue to climb. There is talk within the Eurozone that Germany and France will come to Greece’s aid, and that a plan will be solidified prior to November 3. This would boost stock markets at the expense of bonds, leading to higher mortgage rates.
In addition, last week’s strong employment data has renewed speculation that the U.S. economy is, in fact, healthy so analysts are now watching for Friday’s Retail Sales data.
Because consumer spending is an economic catalyst, if Retail Sales shows strength, mortgage rates should rise.
And, lastly, there is a 10-year Treasury auction Wednesday. Mortgage bonds don’t mirror the treasuries, but when demand is strong for treasuries, it’s often strong for mortgage-backed bonds, too. Therefore, a strong auction of government debt will help hold mortgage rates down.
A weak auction should lead rates higher.
A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of Friday’s Jobs Report
0124 days
by Geoff Brown
in The Economy
Mortgage rates are prepped to make big moves in the next 36 hours. Is it time for you to call in your rate lock?
Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September. Issued monthly, the ”jobs report” offers sector-by-sector job creation figures from the month prior, and reports on the national Unemployment Rate.
Last month, exactly zero net new jobs were created, the government said. This month, economists expect a net 60,000 new jobs created.
Depending on where the actual monthly figure falls, FHA and conforming mortgage rates in Charlotte may be volatile. The jobs reports tends to have out-sized influence on the mortgage bond market.
The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is fairly straight-forward. As jobs go, so goes the economy. This is because more working Americans leads to a stronger economic base.
- When more people work, consumer spending grows
- When more people work, governments collect more taxes
- When more people work, household savings increases
Each of these items are strengths to a recovering economy.
For rate shoppers, Friday’s job report could cause mortgage rates to rise — or fall. If the actual number of jobs created exceeded the 60,000 consensus estimate, look for mortgage rates to climb.
Conversely, if new jobs fell short of 60,000, expect that rates will drop.
Home affordability is at all-time highs because mortgage rates are at all-time lows. If you’re under contract for a home or looking to refinance, eliminate some of your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Get your rate lock in today.
