Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Posts tagged NAHB
Homebuilder Confidence Returns To Pre-Recession Levels
094 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
New construction buyers in Charlotte , look out. The nation’s home builders are predicting a strong 2012 for new home sales. It may mean higher home prices as the spring buying season approaches.
For the sixth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that homebuilder confidence is on the rise. The Housing Market Index climbed four points to 29 in February, the index’s highest reading since May 2007.
The Housing Market Index is now up 8 points in 8 weeks. The last time that happened was June 2003, a month during which the U.S. economy was regaining its footing, much like this month. It’s noteworthy that June 2003 marked the start of a 4-year bull run in the stock market that took equities up 54%.
The NAHB’s Housing Market Index itself is actually a composite reading. It’s the end-result of three separate surveys sent to home builders monthly.
The association’s questions are basic :
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
In February, builders reported marked improvement across all three areas. Builders report that current home sales climbed 5 points; that sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 5 points; and that buyer foot traffic climbed 1 point.
Most notable of all of the statistics, though, is that the nation’s home builders report that there are now twice as many buyers setting foot inside model units as compared to just 6 months ago.
This data is supported by the monthly New Home Sales report which shows rising sales and a shrinking new home inventory.
Because of this, today’s new home buyers throughout Carolinas should expect fewer concessions from builders at the time of contract including fewer price breaks on a home and fewer free upgrades. Builders are optimistic for the future and, therefore, may be less willing to “make a deal”.
This spring may mark the best time of year to buy a new home. 60 days forward, it may be too late.
Home Builders Experiencing Heavy Foot Traffic And Higher Sales Volume
0152 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
In another good sign for the housing market, today’s home builders believe that the housing market has turned a corner.
For the third straight month, the Housing Market Index — a home builder confidence survey from the National Association of Homebuilders — reported strong monthly gains.
December’s Housing Market Index climbed 2 points to 21 in December after a downward revision to last month’s results. The index is now up seven points since September 2011, and sits at a 19-month high.
When home builder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions in the single-family new home market. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
The Housing Market Index has not crossed 50 since April 2006.
The HMI itself is actually a composite reading; the result of three related home builder surveys. The National Association of Homebuilders asks its members about their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and their current buyer “foot traffic”.
The results are compiled into the single Housing Market Index tally.
In December, builder survey responses showed strength across all 3 questions :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 22 (+2 from November)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 26 (+1 from November)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 18 (+3 from November)
These results support the recent New Home Sales and Housing Starts data, both of which show an increase in single-family sales, and a decrease in new home housing supply.
When demand rises and supplies fall, home prices climb.
It’s also noteworthy that the Housing Market Index put buyer foot traffic at newly-built homes at its highest level since May 2008. With even more buyers expected to enter the market, new home prices are expected to rise across Charlotte in 2012 — especially in the face of shrinking home supplies.
For now, though, with home prices stable and mortgage rates low, buyers can grab “a deal”. 60 days forward, though, may be too late.
The Spring Buying Season unofficially starts February 6, 2012.
Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?
0185 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.
Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It’s the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.
The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s meant to measure confidence among the nation’s homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.
When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.
As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.
In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)
And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month’s Housing Market Index.
In November, “Current Single Family Sales” climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 — the month after last year’s home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.
That’s an important point for Charlotte home buyers.
With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.
For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout Carolinas , and helps new home construction remain affordable.
If you’re in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get “a deal”.
Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat
0243 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.
With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.
The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.
The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.
With homebuilder confidence low — and stagnant — buyers of new homes Charlotte in should remain alert for “deals”. Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.
Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.
