Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Posts tagged Inflation
A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (March 13, 2012)
068 days
by Geoff Brown
in Federal Reserve
Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
For the fourth consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. It is expected to remain near-zero through 2014, at least.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanded moderately” since the FOMC’s January 2012 meeting, adding that growth is occurring despite “strains in the global financial markets” that pose “significant downside risks” to long-term outlooks.
The Federal Reserve now expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters and a gradual easing in the national Unemployment Rate.
The Fed also noted that :
- The housing sector remains “depressed”
- Labor conditions have “improved further”
- Household spending has “continued to advance”
With respect to inflation, the Fed said that rising oil and gasoline prices will “push up” inflation temporarily, but not over the long-term.
At its meeting, the Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs. The Fed re-affirmed its intentions to hold the Fed Funds Rate at “exceptionally low” levels through late-2014, and to buy mortgage-backed bonds in the open market.
Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets worsened slightly, pressuring mortgage rates higher in and around Charlotte.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a two-day event slated for April 24-25, 2012.
Federal Reserve Wary Of European Spillover
086 days
by Geoff Brown
in Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its 2-day meeting January 24-25, 2012.
The Fed Minutes is a summary of the conversations and debates that shape our nation’s monetary policy. It receives less attention than the Fed’s more well-known, post-meeting press release, but the Fed Minutes is every bit as important.
To rate shoppers in Charlotte , for example, the Fed Minutes can provide clues about whether mortgage rates will generally rise or fall in the coming months.
The most recent Fed Minutes reveals a central bank divided on the future of the U.S. economy. The minutes show some Fed members in favor of new, immediate market stimulus. It shows others in favor of terminating the stimulus that’s already in place.
The Fed’s debate centered on the topic of inflation, and the pressures that a prolonged, near-zero Fed Funds Rate can place on the economy. Ultimately, the Fed did nothing, neither adding new stimulus nor removing that which is already in place.
It did, however, communicate a plan to keep the benchmark Fed Funds Rate rate “exceptionally low” through late-2014, at least.
The Fed Minutes included the following notes, too :
- On employment : Unemployment rates will “decline only gradually” in 2012
- On housing : The market is “held down” by the “large overhang” of distressed homes
- On inflation : Consumer prices have remained “flat”
Furthermore, the Fed expressed optimism regarding European financial markets, noting that market sentiment “appeared to brighten a bit”. Nonetheless, “spillovers” remain possible and the threat continues to weigh on markets.
Mortgage rates are slightly worse since the Fed Minutes were released.
The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is March 13, 2012 — its second of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 13, 2011
0342 days
by Geoff Brown
in Mortgage Rates
Mortgage markets moved in feverish fashion last week, changing with extreme frequency, and eventually ending slightly worse on the week. Conforming mortgage fell last week but, by Friday, they had retreated higher.
Last week marked just the second time in 10 weeks that rates in Charlotte increased. During that span, Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates have dropped 42 basis points, or 0.42%.
That equates to a monthly savings of $25.24 per $100,000 borrowed.
One reason why mortgage rates have been dropping is that the economy is growing more slowly than projected. In a speech last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke described the U.S. recovery as “frustratingly slow”. In a separate speech, another Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, categorized the recovery as “subpar”.
Economic weakness tends to promote a low mortgage rate environment as equity markets sell off and investors seek safety of principal. Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the 6th straight week, its longest losing streak since 2002.
Mortgage rates were also helped by ongoing uncertainty in Greece. The nation remains at-risk for default, and that’s spurring a bond market to flight-to-quality which benefits the U.S. mortgage market, too.
This week, mortgage rates may reverse their recent slide. There isn’t much data due for release, but the numbers that will hit the wires have the ability to move markets — especially the inflation-linked figures.
- Tuesday : Producer Price Index, Retail Sales
- Wednesday : Consumer Price Index
- Thursday : Housing Starts
- Friday : Consumer Sentiment
If you’ve been looking at mortgage rates for a purchase or refinance, now may be a good time to lock. FHA and conforming rates are at their lowest levels since December 2010.
Going forward, rates have much more room to rise than to fall.
Job Growth Returning To “Normal” Levels — A Bad Sign For Mortgage Rates
0381 days
by Geoff Brown
in The Economy
Be prepared for Friday morning. Mortgage rates and home affordability could worsen quickly. At 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its April Non-Farm Payrolls report and momentum has been strong.
The monthly jobs report is a market-mover and analysts expect that 196,000 new jobs were added last month. If those expectations are exceeded — by even a little — Wall Street would take it mean “economic strength” and the stock market would be boosted.
Too bad for rate shoppers, though; a move like that would also lead to higher mortgage rates throughout Carolinas. This is because, coming out of a recession, reports of economic strength tend to push mortgage rates up. We’ve seen it happen multiple times in the last 8 months.
Since losing more than 7 million jobs between 2008 and 2009, employers have added 1.3 million jobs back to the economy. And we’re learning that there’s plans for fewer job cuts in the future. It’s clear that the jobs market is improving and this is why tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is so important.
A “weak economy” helped keep mortgage rates low for a very long time. A strengthening economy will reverse that tide.
So, consider your personal risk tolerance today, in advance of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. If the thought of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, call your loan officer and lock in a rate today. Once tomorrow’s data is released, after all, the market might look changed.
