Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Posts tagged Housing Starts
Housing Starts Show Strength In Housing
0151 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
The new construction housing market continues to show strength across the country.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 447,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in November — a 2 percent increase from October.
A “Housing Start” is defined as breaking ground on new home construction.
November’s figures mark the third straight month of Single-Family Housing Starts gains. The new construction metric is now 15 percent above its all-time low, set in February of this year.
None of this should be a surprise to new home buyers in Charlotte.
Housing data has been trending better since September with sales volumes rising and home inventories falling. Basic economics tells us that home prices should soon rise.
The good news is that low mortgage rates should keep homes affordable.
Since mid-November, the average, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage has hovered near 4.000% nationwide with an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs. 1 discount point equals one percent of your loan size. This is down from near 4.500% six months ago, and the drop has made a big impact on home affordability.
- June 2011 : $200,000 mortgage costs $1,013.37 per month
- December 2011 : $200,000 mortgage costs $954.83 per month
This represents $700 in savings per year. It’s no wonder home builders report the highest buyer foot traffic in 3 years.
Meanwhile, the market shows little signs of slowing down. Building Permits are on the rise, too.
Permits for single-family homes rose to their highest levels of year in November and 89 percent of those homes will start construction within 60 days. This means that Single-Family Housing Starts should stay strong through the early part of 2012, and into the spring.
If you’re planning to buy new construction in Carolinas , therefore, talk to your real estate agent soon and consider moving up your time frame. With mortgage rates low and next year’s buying season approaching, you may find that the best “deals” will come within the next few weeks only.
Finding Truth In September’s Housing Starts Report
0213 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
Headlines in newspapers can be misleading — especially with respect to housing figures. Media coverage of the most recent Housing Starts data serves as an excellent illustration.
Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its September Housing Starts report. In it, the government said that national Housing Starts rose 15 percent in September as compared to August 2011, tallying 658,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.
The September reading is the highest monthly reading since April 2010, the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit.
The sudden surge in starts is big news for a housing market that has struggled of late, and the press was eager to carry the story. Here is a sampling of some headlines:
- U.S. Housing Starts Rise 15%, Hit 17-Month High (MarketWatch)
- Home Building Jumps 15% in September (ABC)
- New Construction Surges In September (LA Times)
These headlines are each accurate. However, they’re also misleading.
Yes, Housing Starts did surge in September, but if we remove the “5 or more units” grouping from the Census Bureau data — the catgory that includes apartment buildings and condominium structures — we’re left with Single-Family Housing Starts and Single-Family Housing Starts rose just 1.7 percent last month.
That’s a good number, but hardly a great one. And for home buyers and sellers throughout Charlotte and nationwide, it’s the Single-Family Housing Starts that matter most. Individuals like you and I don’t buy entire apartment buildings. Most often, we buy single-family homes. Therefore, that’s the data for which we should watch.
The good news is that media tales work in both directions.
Building Permits dropped 5 percent last month when the volatile 5-unit-or-more-units category was included from the math. Isolating for single-family homes, we find that permits were unchanged.
This is good housing because 82% of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance, hinting at a steady, late-fall housing market.
Building Permits Fade Faster Than Expected
0368 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
Single-family housing starts dropped by 21,000 units in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.
The Housing Starts report measures the number of homes on which new construction “broke ground”. It’s tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce which releases new data monthly.
Single-family housing starts fell 5 percent as compared to March 2011, and 30 percent as compared to April one year ago.
The figures were worse than what Wall Street expected. For just the second time in 2 years, monthly single-family housing starts dropped below 400,000 units. In addition, single-family Building Permits fell in April as well, shedding 2 percent from March.
A building permit is a local government’s approval to start home construction and when permits are down, new construction follows. This is because 93 percent of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.
Fewer permits, as a consequence, means fewer new homes. Therefore, if you’re looking at new construction in or around Charlotte , April’s numbers may spark a sense of urgency.
Home prices are a function of home supply and demand and, based on the Housing Starts data, supplies appear headed for a fall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, demand should be rising — foot traffic is higher, mortgage rates are lower, and job growth is picking up.
This should lead new home prices higher in time. For now, though, home affordability remains high.
It’s a good time to look at new home construction.
Building Permits Rise In All 4 Regions
0396 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
According to the Census Bureau, seasonally-adjusted, single-family Housing Starts rebounded in March, increasing 8 percent over February’s 2-year low.
We can’t put too much faith in the data, however, because for the second straight month, the government reports that the data’s margin of error — 15 percent – exceeds its actual measurement.
As written in the footnotes, there’s no “statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero.”
In other words, single-family Housing Starts may have dropped up to 7 percent last month, or may have increased by as much as 22 percent. We won’t know for certain until several months from now. As the Census Bureau gathers more data, it will revise its initial monthly findings.
Such adjustments are common. February’s starts were revised higher by 4.5%, for example.
Also included in the Census Bureau’s report is the March 2011 Building Permits tally. As compared to February, permits were higher by 6 percent nationwide. This is a noteworthy development because permits-issued is an excellent forward-predictor for housing.
When permits are issued, 86 percent of them will start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits report trend, but on a 2-month delay.
Permits were strong in all 4 regions last month:
- Northeast : +2.6 percent from February
- Midwest : +10.0 percent from February
- South : +5.3 percent from February
- West : +5.3 percent from February
With Building Permits rising, we can infer that the housing market is improving.
Therefore, if you’re currently looking for new construction, consider that the market may be less favorable for buyers 4-6 months from now than it is today. Especially because homebuilders are already projecting higher sales volume.
The better time to buy new construction — relative — may be now.
