Posts tagged FOMC
A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 10, 2010 Edition)
Aug 10th
Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.
The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.
Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.
Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:
- Growth is ongoing on a national level
- Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
- Business spending is rising
As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.
There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Carolinas are unchanged this afternoon.
The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.
The Fed Is Meeting Today. Should You Float Or Lock Your Mortgage Rate?
Aug 10th
The Federal Open Market Committee holds a one-day meeting today, its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, and sixth overall since January.
The FOMC is the government’s monetary policy-setting arm and the group’s primary tool for that purpose is an interest rate called the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
It’s the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history.
Because the Fed Funds Rate is near zero, it’s accommodative of economic growth, spurring businesses and consumers to borrow money on the cheap. This, in turn, fosters economic growth within a U.S. economy that is somewhat tentative and facing headwinds.
The Fed has said over and again that it will hold the Fed Funds Rate “exceptionally low” for as long as conditions warrant. It’s expect that the Fed will reiterate that message in today’s post-meeting press release.
However, just because the Fed Funds Rate won’t be changing today, that doesn’t mean that mortgage rates won’t. Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve; open markets make mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates in Carolinas tend to be volatile when the Fed is meeting. This is because the Fed’s press release highlights strengths and weaknesses in the economy and, depending on how Wall Street views those remarks, bond markets can undulate and mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.
When Ben Bernanke & Co. speak, Wall Street listens.
The Fed’s press release today will be dissected and analyzed. Talk of higher-than-expected inflation, or better-than-expected growth should have a negative effect on rates. Talk of an economic slowdown may help rates to fall.
Either way, we can’t be certain what the Fed will say or do this afternoon so if you’re floating a rate right now and wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe choice is to lock before 2:15 PM ET today.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 9, 2010
Aug 8th
Mortgage markets improved again last week on softer-than-expected economic data, punctuated by Friday morning’s weak jobs report. Conforming mortgage rates in Carolinas dropped on the news.
Mortgage rates have been on an extended rally dating back to mid-April.
This week, there’s a lot of data and news due for release, the most influential to markets of which is the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled policy meeting.
8 times annually, the FOMC meets to discuss the nation’s monetary policy with respect to the current and projected U.S. economic conditions. Sometimes the FOMC takes action on the economy. Other times, it does not.
Either way, Fed meetings are market movers and it’s a gamble to float a mortgage rate ahead of an FOMC get-together.
There’s other’s stories to watch this week, too. Each has the ability to change mortgage rates.
- Tuesday : FOMC meeting; Consumer Confidence data
- Thursday : Jobless Claims
- Friday : Retail Sales; Consumer Price Index
It’s a busy week on Wall Street, to be sure, and rate shoppers would do well to pay attention. Not only can the FOMC meeting change mortgage rates for every product in every market, but it can also change the outlook for mortgage rates going forward.
Rates are at an all-time low and low rates can’t last forever. We’re in the middle of a Refi Boom today and, soon, the boom will be over.
If you haven’t spoken to a loan officer about refinancing your home, or locking a mortgage rate, your best time to make the call is prior to the FOMC’s Tuesday afternoon adjournment at 2:15 PM ET. Mortgage rates will get jumpy leading up to the meeting, and will most certainly be volatile afterward.
A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 23, 2010 Edition)
Jun 23rd
Today, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.
The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, “the economic recovery is proceeding” and that the jobs market “is improving gradually”. Business spending “has risen significantly”, too, with the exception of commercial real estate.
Today’s statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009. Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.
The recession is widely believed to be over.
And, although the Fed’s statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.
- Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
- European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
- Bank lending is contracting
Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, citing that “inflation has trended lower” recently.
Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in Carolinas are slightly improved post-FOMC.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.
Making A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of The Fed’s Meeting This Week
Jun 22nd
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day meeting today, its fourth scheduled meeting of the year, and fifth overall.
The FOMC is the monetary policy-setting part of the government and its primary tool for that purpose is the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is the dictated rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
This is the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history. A rate near zero-point-zero percent renders borrowing by business and consumers cheap which, in turn, promotes investment and growth.
There’s no expectation for the Fed to change the Fed Funds Rate after it adjourns tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean consumers in Charlotte should expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged, too.
To the contrary, mortgage rates tend to be volatile when the FOMC is meeting. This is because the FOMC issues a press release after each meeting and in that press release, it comments on the economy’s unique threats, strengths and weaknesses.
When the FOMC speaks, Wall Street listens.
The words of the Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press release will be dissected and analyzed. A single mention of higher-than-expected inflation levels, or better-than-expected growth, and traders will rush to dump their bond positions in favor of equities.
This has a negative effect on mortgage rates.
Conversely, if the Fed is dour on the economy, mortgage rates may fall.
We can’t know for sure what the Fed will say or do tomorrow afternoon so if you’re floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe choice is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.
The Fed Adjourns From A 2-Day Meeting Today And What It Means For Mortgage Rates
Apr 28th
The Federal Reserve adjourns from a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It’s one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings for 2010.
Upon adjournment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce “no change” in the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is currently in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The Fed Funds Rate is an inter-bank lending rate. It’s also the basis for Prime Rate, a consumer interest rate on which credit card payments are based, among other consumer loans. Prime Rate is equal to the Fed Funds Rate + 3 percent. Credit card rates, therefore, will likely stay flat today, too.
Mortgage rates, however, should change. Possibly by a lot. The 30-year fixed mortgage does not correlate with the Fed Funds Rate (as shown in the chart at right).
The reason mortgage rates will change today is because, in its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight vrious parts of the economy, identifying strengths, weaknesses and probable threats to growth.
These observations influence investors with a stake in bond markets and future returns and, with Wall Street on edge right now — unsure of whether recent economic growth is a longer-term trend or a short-lived blip – mortgage rates could shoot higher or they could drop, depending on how traders interpret the Fed.
It’s a difficult time to be shopping mortgages in Carolinas.
Further complicating matters is Greece’s recent debt downgrade to junk status. A small contagion fear is budding worldwide and, as a result, the flight-to-quality has picked up steam. Mortgage rates are down because of it but could reverse higher at any moment.
Therefore, if you’re actively shopping for a mortgage today, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed’s announcement and any major market reversal. Mortgage rates may fall today, but there’s very little room for them to fall. This is, however, a lot of room for them to rise.
The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET. Call me and lock your rate !
