Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Pending Home Sales
Pending Home Sales At The Highest Levels Since April 2010
0474 days
Another day, another strong report for housing.
The Pending Home Sales Index climbed 2 percent in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.
Pending Home Sales are up for the fifth time in 6 months. The December reading is now its highest since the federal home buyer tax credit’s April 2010 contract deadline, and the figure is well north of the Pending Home Sales Index 3-year average.
Coupling this data with December’s strong Existing Homes Sales report (+12%) and its strong New Home Sales report (+17%), it’s clear that the housing market has past its trough and is in Recovery Mode.
Even consumer confidence is at an 8-month high.
On a regional basis, December’s Pending Home Sales Index varied as compared against November. The South region led the way, and the West region lagged.
- Northeast Region: +1.8%
- Midwest Region : +8.0%
- South Region : +11.5%
- West Region : -13.2%
Home buyers would do well to study last month’s Pending Home Sales Index. It offers clues of what to expect during the spring buying season. For example, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.
Therefore, we can look at the December Pending Home Sales Index and project, with a high level of confidence, that home sales will be higher throughout February and March on a units-basis.
Furthermore, because the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports show that housing stock is falling nationwide, spring buyers in Charlotte will notice find more competition for the available housing stock. As the Supply-and-Demand curve shifts towards sellers, home prices rise.
In other words, there’s no rush to buy a home, but as the year progresses, home prices are expected to rise, as are mortgage rates. This one-two combination will impact home affordability negatively. And the higher that mortgage rates go, the worse the damage.
Your home-buying dollar won’t go as far in 2011′s second half as it will go right now. If you have plans to buy a home in 2011, consider moving up your time-frame.
Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer’s Market Until January
0558 days
After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September’s reading fell 2 percent.
A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.
Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market. A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR’s monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.
Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.
For home buyers in Charlotte , this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.
Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.
As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.
Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index’s fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side.
So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.
Pending Home Sales Data Points To Higher Home Prices This Fall
0593 days
Consistent with calls of a housing rebound, the Pending Home Sales Index rose again in August. It marks the second straight month of improvement after May’s post-tax credit drop-off.
A “pending home” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 4 out of 5 pending homes close within 60 days, and many more close within 90 days. For this reason, the Pending Home Sales Index is an excellent forward-indicator for housing.
As a real-life illustration, after July’s 27% plunge to an 11-year low, Existing Home Sales recovered 8 percent in August. This was not a surprise, though, because July’s Pending Home Sales Index predicted it.
Region-by-region, the Pending Home Sales Index varied in August, suggesting better sales levels in the South and West markets:
- Northeast : -2.9% from July
- Midwest : +2.1% from July
- South : +6.7% from July
- West : + 6.4% from July
That said, real estate markets aren’t “regional” — they’re local. Just as there are improving markets within the Northeast Region, there’s worsening markets in the West. And cities like Charlotte have their own market traits, too.
Overall, buyers are being drawn into housing by low mortgage rates, affordable homes, and ample supply. If the August Pending Home Sales Index is foreshadowing the fall housing market, home prices appear slated to rise.
Home Sales Are Back On The Rise After A 2-Month Pullback
0620 days
Just one week after reports of Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales plunging, the housing market is signaling that auturm may fare better than did summer.
The number of homes under contract to sell rose 5 percent in July.
The data comes from the July Pending Home Sales Index, as published by the National Association of Realtors®. By definition, a “pending home sales” is a home that is sold, but not yet closed.
Historically, 80% of such homes close within 60 days which makes the Pending Home Sales Index an excellent, forward-looking indicator for the real estate market.
Indeed, the nationwide drop in home sales this summer was foreshadowed by the Pending Home Sales report. The index dropped 30 percent in May. Then, two months later in July, it was shown that Existing Home Sales volume dropped 29 percent.
That’s a strong correlation.
Now, to be fair, the July Pending Home Sales Index is still relatively low; the second-lowest on record and well below last year’s numbers. But, the tick higher last month shows how housing may be stronger than than what the headlines report.
It appears that buyers in Charlotte took advantage of rising inventory, cheap financing, and stagnant prices, and pushed the market forward. We should expect similarly promising numbers when September’s Existing Home Sales data is released.
