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	<title>My Carolina Loan &#187; Case-Shiller Index</title>
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		<title>Why You Shouldn&#8217;t Put Too Much Faith In October&#8217;s Case-Shiller Index</title>
		<link>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-october-2010.html</link>
		<comments>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-october-2010.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Dec 2010 13:47:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Case-Shiller Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[admin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mycarolinaloan.com/?p=1577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index's 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September's and October's respective report. Some markets fell as much as 2.9 percent.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Geoff Brown and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.--></p>
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Case-Shiller October 2010" src="https://bringtheblog.com/i/case-shiller-delta-201012.png" alt="Case-Shiller October 2010" width="450" height="438" /></p>
<p>The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index&#8217;s 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September&#8217;s and October&#8217;s respective report. Some markets fell <a title="October 2010 Case-Shiller" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&amp;blobcol=urldocumentfile&amp;blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&amp;blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&amp;blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&amp;blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&amp;blobkey=id&amp;blobheadername1=content-type&amp;blobwhere=1245281640766&amp;blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&amp;blobnocache=true" target="_blank">as much as 2.9 percent</a>.</p>
<p>The drop in values is nothing about which to panic, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what we already knew. It&#8217;s a common theme with the Case-Shiller Index, actually; a trait traced to the report&#8217;s methodology.</p>
<p>The Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect housing indicator with 3 inherent flaws.</p>
<p>The first flaw is that the index makes use of a limited data set, tracking values in just 20 cities nationwide. That data set is then projected across the more than <a title="List of cities, towns and villages in the United States" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities,_towns,_and_villages_in_the_United_States" target="_blank">3,100 other municipalities</a> in the United States. The &#8220;national figures&#8221;, therefore, aren&#8217;t really national.</p>
<p>The second flaw is that, even within the tracked 20 cities, not all home sales are included. The Case-Shiller Index only tracks sales of single-family, detached homes, and within that market subset, it only uses homes that are &#8220;repeat sales&#8221;. This specifically excludes sales of condominiums and multi-family homes, and new construction.</p>
<p>Lastly, Case-Shiller Index&#8217;s third flaw is its &#8220;age&#8221;. The Case-Shiller Index reports on a 60-day delay, and the values it reports are tied to contracts written even <em>longer</em> ago.  Sales contracts from July and August are responsible for October&#8217;s closings so when we see the Case-Shiller Index as reported in December, some of the data it&#8217;s reporting is 5 months old already. That&#8217;s too old to be relevant.</p>
<p>Looking back at 2010, housing was at its weakest between May and August. Therefore, it&#8217;s no surprise that the most recent Case-Shiller Index shows significant weakness.  Looking forward, we should expect the report to improve &#8212; especially because of how strong New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales have been since summer.</p>
<p>The Case-Shiller Index is helpful for economists and policy-makers. It&#8217;s not much good for individual homeowners, however. For accurate, real-time housing data, talk to a real estate professional instead.</p>
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		<title>Case-Shiller Posts 16th Straight Month Of Home Price Improvement</title>
		<link>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-june-2010.html</link>
		<comments>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-june-2010.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:46:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Case-Shiller Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mycarolinaloan.com/?p=1380</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to the Standard &#038; Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It's the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Geoff Brown and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.--></p>
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Case-Shiller Change In Home Values May-June 2010" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/case-shiller-delta-201006.png" alt="Case-Shiller Change In Home Values May-June 2010" width="450" height="438" /></p>
<p>According to the Standard &amp; Poors Case-Shiller Index, <a title="Case-Shiller June 2010" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----" target="_blank">home values rose 5 percent in June</a> versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It&#8217;s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.</p>
<p>That said, homeowners and home buyers in Charlotte would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.</p>
<ul>
<li>Existing Home Sales are <a title="Existing Home Sales July 2010" href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/08/ehs_fall" target="_blank">down 27 percent</a></li>
<li>New Home Sales are <a title="new Home Sales July 2010" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67N3B320100825" target="_blank">down 12 percent</a></li>
<li>Homebuilder confidence <a title="NAHB builder confidence for August 2010" href="http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=11186" target="_blank">is down</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index &#8212; it&#8217;s out of date as soon as it&#8217;s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don&#8217;t buy homes in the &#8220;60 days ago&#8221; real estate market, after all.</p>
<p>June is ancient real estate history.</p>
<p>However, the Case-Shiller Index <em>does </em>have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street&#8217;s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.</p>
<p>Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.</p>
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		<title>Case-Shiller- Home Price Improvement In 90% Of Cities including Charlotte</title>
		<link>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-april-2010.html</link>
		<comments>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-april-2010.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jun 2010 12:46:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Case-Shiller Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Price Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mycarolinaloan.com/?p=1274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market's rebound is gathering momentum.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Geoff Brown and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.--></p>
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Case-Shiller Change In Home Values Mar-Apr 2010" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/case-shiller-delta-201004.png" alt="Case-Shiller Change In Home Values Mar-Apr 2010" width="450" height="438" /></p>
<p>Standard &amp; Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector&#8217;s most popular home pricing models.</p>
<p>In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and <a title="Case-Shiller April 2010" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&amp;blobcol=urldocumentfile&amp;blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&amp;blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&amp;blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&amp;blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&amp;blobkey=id&amp;blobheadername1=content-type&amp;blobwhere=1245215120051&amp;blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&amp;blobnocache=true" target="_blank">its accompanying analysis</a>, it appears that the housing market&#8217;s rebound is gathering momentum.</p>
<p>In the index&#8217;s 20 tracked cities:</p>
<ul>
<li>18 of 20 improved from March to April 2010</li>
<li>Versus April 2009, home prices are up nearly 4 percent</li>
<li>The two &#8220;down&#8221; cities from April &#8212; Miami and New York &#8212; are off just 0.5% and 1.0% annually, respectively</li>
</ul>
<p>Furthermore, as another sign of strength, San Diego, a city in which homeowners have lost a lot of equity since 2007, has now shown 12 straight months of home price improvement.</p>
<p>However, the Case-Shiller Index must be kept in context. It&#8217;s far from perfect.</p>
<p>For one, the index reports on a 60-day delay; it&#8217;s only now showing data from the end of April, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was expiring. Home sales have been weak since then <a title="Existing Home Sales report May 2010" href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/06/may_strong_pace" target="_blank">it&#8217;s been reported</a>.</p>
<p>And second, the Case-Shiller Index is limited to just 20 cities nationwide. Therefore, the index doesn&#8217;t consider every home sale in every American city &#8212; it only considers a select few. Many more U.S. homes are <em>ex</em>cluded from the Case-Shiller Index than are <em>in</em>cluded.</p>
<p>But, despite its flaws, the Case-Shiller Index remains important with respect to economic analysis. Much like the government’s <a title="Home Price Index" href="http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/15866/HPIApr2010PR62210.pdf" target="_blank">Home Price Index</a>, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader trends in housing that shape government and monetary policy.</p>
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		<title>December 2009 Case-Shiller Data Shows Battered Markets In Bona Fide Recovery</title>
		<link>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-december-2009.html</link>
		<comments>http://mycarolinaloan.com/2010/%month%/case-shiller-index-december-2009.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 13:46:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Case-Shiller Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Prices]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mycarolinaloan.com/?p=1013</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Using data compiled in December, Standard &#038; Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The report shows home prices down just 2.5% on an annual basis, a figure much lower than the 8.7% annual drop reported after Q3.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Geoff Brown and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.--></p>
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Case-Shiller Monthly Change Nov 2009-Dec 2009" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/case-shiller-delta-200912.png" alt="Case-Shiller Monthly Change Nov 2009-Dec 2009" width="420" height="409" /></p>
<p>Using data compiled in December, Standard &amp; Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The report shows home prices down <a title="Case-Shiller December 2009 Report" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&amp;blobcol=urldocumentfile&amp;blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&amp;blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&amp;blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&amp;blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&amp;blobkey=id&amp;blobheadername1=content-type&amp;blobwhere=1245206345483&amp;blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&amp;blobnocache=true" target="_blank">just 2.5% on an annual basis</a>, a figure much lower than the 8.7% annual drop reported after Q3.</p>
<p>According to Case-Shiller representatives, the housing market is &#8220;in better shape than it was this time last year&#8221;, but some of the summer&#8217;s momentum has been lost. 15 of 20 tracked markets declined in value between November and December 2009.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, it&#8217;s interesting to note the 5 markets that <em>didn&#8217;t</em> decline &#8212; Detroit, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego.  Each of these metro regions were among the hardest hit nationwide when home prices first broke.  Now, they&#8217;re leading the pack in price recovery.</p>
<p>For some real estate investors, that&#8217;s a positive signal.  But we also have to consider <a title="Case-Shiller Methodology" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&amp;blobcol=urldata&amp;blobtable=MungoBlobs&amp;blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DMethdology_SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Web.pdf&amp;blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&amp;blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&amp;blobkey=id&amp;blobheadername1=content-type&amp;blobwhere=1243624745188&amp;blobheadervalue3=UTF-8" target="_blank">the Case-Shiller Index&#8217;s flaws</a> because they&#8217;re big ones.</p>
<p>As examples:</p>
<ol>
<li>Case-Shiller data is reported on a 2-month lag</li>
<li>The Case-Shiller sample set includes just 20 U.S. cities</li>
<li>There&#8217;s no &#8220;national real estate market&#8221; &#8212; real estate is local</li>
</ol>
<p>That said, the Case-Shiller Index is still important. As the most widely-used private sector housing index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader housing trends and many people believe housing is a key element in the economic recovery.</p>
<p>If the markets that led the housing decline will lead the housing resurgence, December&#8217;s data shows that full recovery is right around the corner.</p>
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