Mortgage News in the Carolinas
Geoff Brown
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Jobs Report Due Friday; Mortgage Rates Expected To Change
045 days
by Geoff Brown
in The Economy
If you’re out shopping for a home this week, or trying to lock a mortgage rate, with Friday comes home affordability risk. Consider locking your mortgage rate today.
The March Non-Farm Payrolls report is due for release Friday morning and mortgage rates are expected to move. Unfortunately for the home buyers and rate shoppers of Charlotte , we can’t know in which direction that will be.
The prudent play may be to lock your mortgage rate today.
On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. More commonly called “the jobs report”, the release is a bona fide market-mover, month after month.
Depending on how the March jobs data reads, FHA and conforming mortgage rates could rise — or fall — by a measurable amount post-release. This is because today’s mortgage market is closely tied to the economy, and the economy is closely tied to job growth.
The connection between jobs and mortgage rates is basic.
More workers leads to higher levels of consumer spending nationwide and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy.
In addition, when more workers are paid, more taxes are paid, too. Local, state and federal governments collect more monies when payrolls are rising which, in turn, benefits projects that purchase new goods and services, and, in many cases, results in the hiring of additional personnel.
Job creation can be a powerful, self-reinforcing cycle.
Between 2008 and 2009, the economy shed 7 million jobs. It has since recovered half of them. Friday, analysts expect to count another 200,000 jobs created. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds estimates, look for stock markets to gain and bond markets to lose. This leads to higher mortgage rates — especially with the Federal Reserve zeroed in on the labor market.
If the actual number of jobs created in March falls short of expectations, however, mortgage rates may fall.
Unfortunately, by the time the report is released, it will be too late to act on it. The release is made at 8:30 AM ET and bond markets are closed for Good Friday.
Case-Shiller Shows Uneven Recovery For U.S. Housing
052 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
Recent data suggests that the U.S. housing market is in recovery. However, the data also shows this to be an uneven recovery.
According to the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Index, for example, home values rose in three of 20 tracked markets between December 2011 and January 2012. 17 tracked markets showed home prices still in decline.
It’s easy to point to the Case-Shiller Index as evidence that the housing market in Carolinas has yet to bottom, but we have to consider the Case-Shiller Index’s shortcomings — specifically in a recovering economy.
For example, the Case-Shiller Index is based on changes in home prices of a single home, through successive sales. This means that to calculate its home price index, the Case-Shiller searches for sales of the same home over a period of time and calculates the difference in contract price.
This methodology can distort the home price tracker downward during times of weak economy because there is no distinction made for homes sold in foreclosure or as a short sale.
35% of all homes sold in January were “distressed”, says the National Association of REALTORS®.
Another distortion in the Case-Shiller Index is that the model neglects all home types that are not of type “single-family residence”. This means that multi-unit homes and condominiums are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index model.
In some markets, such as Chicago and New York City, condominiums account for a large percentage of overall sales.
Lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is published with a “lag”, which renders it useless to buyers and sellers of Charlotte in search of real-time, relevant data. The most recent Case-Shiller Index is published with a 60-day delay, and accounts for home purchase contracts written between October and December 2011.
Since October, the U.S. economy has added more than 1 million jobs and the economy has moved into “moderate expansion”, according to the Federal Reserve. Data that’s two seasons old does little to help us today.
Making sound real estate decisions is about having timely, relevant data at-hand when it’s needed. The Case-Shiller Index fails in that respect. It’s good for highlighting the U.S. housing market on the whole, as it existed in the past. For real-time market data, though, you’ll want to talk with an active real estate agent.
Pending Home Sales Index Remains Strong Into Spring
053 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
The housing market took a step back in February, but remains near post-recession highs.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, February’s Pending Home Sales Index slipped 0.5 percent from the month prior, to 96.5.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly report which measures the number of homes under contract to sell, but not yet sold, nationwide.
The index is benchmarked to a value of 100, the average level of home contract activity in 2001, the first year that pending home sales data was analyzed. It also happened to be a year of historically-high levels of home contract activity. Therefore, a Pending Home Sales Index reading of 100 suggests a strong housing market nationwide.
The index has read north of 90 since October 2011.
On a regional basis, February’s Pending Home Sales Index varied :
- Northeast Region: -0.5 percent from January 2012
- Midwest Region : +5.7 percent from January 2012
- South Region : -3.3 percent from January 2012
- West Region : -2.6 percent from January 2012
Mild weather may have helped the Midwest Region last month but even regional data can only tell us so much. Like everything in real estate, housing data must be local to be relevant.
Throughout the South Region, for example, the area in which contract activity fell most on a monthly basis, there are states which performed better than the regional average, and states which performed worse. Furthermore, even within those states, there are some cities which over-performed, and others which underperformed.
It’s why we can’t put too much stock in national housing news. Buyers don’t buy nationally — they buy locally.
Today’s home buyers and sellers in Charlotte , therefore, should look beyond the national Pending Home Sales Index and into local market drivers. The Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture of the U.S. housing market but for data that matters to you specifically, it’s not as widely helpful.
To get relevant, timely local real estate data, talk to a real estate professional.
Existing Home Sales Stay Strong; Spring Season Underway
059 days
by Geoff Brown
in Housing Analysis
The market for home resales stays strong.
Despite sparse home inventory, the National Association of REALTORS® reports that 4.59 million existing homes were sold in February on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. An “existing home” is a home that cannot be classified as new construction.
Last month’s sales data represents a 9 percent improvement from the year prior.
There are now just 2.43 million homes for sale nationwide — a 19% reduction versus a year ago. The complete home inventory would “sell out” in 6.4 months at the current sales pace.
Some analysts believe that a 6-month home supply indicates a housing market in balance.
The real estate trade group’s report contained other noteworthy statistics, too :
- 32 percent of home sales were made to first-time buyers
- 33 percent of home sales were made with cash (i.e. no mortgage)
- 34 percent of home sales were of foreclosed homes or homes in short sale
In addition, nearly one-third of all home sales “failed” last month, the result of homes not appraising at the purchase price; or, the buyer’s inability to secure mortgage financing; or, insurmountable home inspection issues.
Even accounting for last month’s high contract failure rate,though, the Existing Home Sales report still posted its second-highest reading since May 2010. For today’s Charlotte home buyer, the data may be a “buy signal”.
As compared to last fall, home supplies are down and home sales are up. Basic economics tell us that home prices should start to rise shortly — if they haven’t already. After all, the Existing Home Sales data is 30 days old, reporting on February. It’s nearly April today.
The good news is that homes remain affordable. With conforming and FHA mortgage rates in the low-4 percent range, home affordability is at its highest in history. Home prices may rise this spring, but at least your mortgage payment should remain low.
