Geoff Brown
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Posts by Geoff Brown
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 26, 2010
Jul 26th
Mortgage markets worsened last week for the first time in 6 weeks last week. Investors were pleased with corporate earnings reports and the European bank stress tests results. Stocks gained on the news, and bonds lost.
Mortgage rates rose last week, but only slightly. Rate are still hovering near their lowest levels of all-time.
Of the bigger stories last week was Existing Home Sales. As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, sales volume was down in June and home supplies were up. But figures were a bit better than expected, giving some hope for housing.
Notably, the number of move-up buyers outnumbers first-timers and the national median home price rose, suggesting that mid-to-upper home prices are getting some support.
This week, the market gets additional two pieces of housing data to add to the mix:
- New Homes Sales (Monday)
- Case-Shiller Index (Tuesday)
Both will have an impact on mortgage rates. In general, better-than-expected data should cause rates to rise in Carolinas ; worse-than-expected data should cause rates to fall.
Also this week, there’s two consumer confidence reports, the Fed’s Beige Book, and late-in-the-week inflationary data. Mortgage markets should remain volatile with so much news headed down the pipe.
It’s too soon to declare the current 3-month rally over, but it’s been 3 weeks since rates dipped. This can be a signal that mortgage rates have finally bottomed and that it’s time to lock your rate.
If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or thinking about a refinance, it’s time to get locked in. Rates may drop this week, but then again, maybe they won’t. There’s little sense gambling on a bet as big as a mortgage.
Yes, You Can Still Get A Mortgage If You’re Pregnant
Jul 22nd
The New York Times ran an important story this week concerning pregnancy and mortgage approvals. Titled “Need a Mortgage? Don’t Get Pregnant“, the article discussed the difficulties that expecting and recently-expanded families are having with their mortgage financing.
NBC’s The Today Show picked up the story as well, as shown in the 3-minute clip above.
The crux of the issue is that maternity/paternity leave often leads to a change in household income and mortgage lenders will no longer assume one or both parents will go back to work full-time. The loss of income can raise a household’s debt-to-income ratio to unlendable levels.
Now, your loan officer cannot ask you about a pregnancy; such questions would be in violation of Equal Credit Opportunity Act. But he can ask if whether you expect your future employment and income situation to change. This would be a perfect time to broach the topic. And you should. If you’re found to have withheld employment and income information from your lender at a later date, it could result in an immediate loan denial plus a loss of earnest monies paid.
Across both pieces, though, the prevailing message is this: Families concurrently planning to (1) have a baby and (2) buy a home should be up-front and forthcoming with their loan officers. Financing is often still available for families expecting an addition — there’s just some extra paperwork though which to work.
Be prepared for that paperwork and you’re more likely to get your loan.
Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June — 7x Better Than The Headline Data
Jul 21st
Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.
A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Charlotte , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.
This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.
The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:
- Single-Family Housing Starts
- Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
- Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)
But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.
That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.
In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.
If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.
Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals
Jul 20th
Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.
The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.
All three surveys were down in July:
- Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
- Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)
The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.
For home buyers in Charlotte , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.
Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.
See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers. Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO.
It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.
If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 19, 2010
Jul 19th
Mortgage markets improved for the 5th straight week last week as consumer confidence waned and inflation data tamed. Investors ignored the news that 19 of 23 reporting S&P 500 companies beat their respective earnings estimates and sold off on stocks.
There’s concern about a potential economic slowdown for the months ahead and it may be well-founded.
Despite an improving jobs situation and booming retail sales, households are less optimistic about the future and so is the Federal Reserve. In its post-meeting minutes released last week, the Fed revised its U.S. growth estimates downward for 2010 and 2011.
For rate shoppers in Carolinas , this is excellent news.
Because of the weakness, conforming mortgage rates fell again last week, extending the current rally in rates to 16 weeks. Mortgage rates are lower than at any time in measured history.
This week, data will be housing market-heavy and mortgage rates could rise or fall.
- Monday : National Association of Home Builders Index
- Tuesday : Building Permits and Housing Starts
- Thursday : Existing Home Sales
Strength in any, or all three, of these housing-related reports should push mortgage rates higher on higher hopes for the economy. Weakness, on the other hand, should have the opposite effect.
Overall, though, mortgage markets are trending better. Momentum is in effect and refinance activity is soaring. That said, it doesn’t mean that rates won’t rise — they could absolutely. It just takes a change in market sentiment. And that could happen quickly.
Mortgage rates are artificially right now so even the slightest jolt could cause them to spike. It would be similar to what happened in June 2009 when rates rose 1.125% in just 10 days’ time. Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage and like the rate you’ve been quoted, consider locking in as soon as possible.
There’s very little room for rates to fall further but a lot of room for rates to rise. Make sure you’re on the right side of that bet.
Mandatory Loan Fees Keep Borrowers From Getting Their Absolute Lowest Rate
Jul 14th
Conforming mortgage rates may be at all time lows this week, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be eligible for them. You may have already called your loan officer and found this out the hard way.
It’s because of a federally-mandated mortgage-pricing scheme known as “loan-level pricing adjustments”.
In effect since April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustments are changes to a loan’s base rate and/or fee structure based on that loan’s inherent risk to Wall Street. It’s similar to auto insurance pricing adjustment in that a sports car, all things equal, will cost more to insure than a comparably-priced minivan.
More risk, more cost.
In mortgage lending, loan risk can be loosely grouped into 5 categories. Mortgage applications in Charlotte featuring any of the five traits are subject to price adjustments:
- Credit Score (i.e. the borrower’s FICO is below 740)
- Property Type (i.e. the subject property is a multi-unit home)
- Occupancy (i.e. the subject property is an investment home)
- Structure (i.e. there is a subordinate/junior lien on title)
- Equity (i.e. mortgage insurance is required by the lender)
Furthermore, loan-level pricing adjustments are cumulative.
A 3-unit investment home will face larger adjustments than an owner-occupied 3-unit home, for example. It’s these adjustments that explain why you may not be eligible for the rates you see advertised online and in the newspapers — your particular loan may be subject to this risk-based pricing that raises your mortgage rate and closing costs.
The government’s loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public information. See what your lender and how your loan quote is made at the Fannie Mae website. Or, if you find the charts confusing, just call or email your loan officer for help with interpretation.
